Obama’s Comfortable Standing
February 12, 2008
The race for the Democratic nomination is far from over, but probably not as far as you think. Cogitamus makes clear why:
Even if Clinton manages a narrow loss, tie, or narrow win in Virginia, Barack Obama should win Maryland and DC handily. Combined with a likely big win in one of his home states (Hawaii), he’ll have roughly a 100 delegate lead going into the Wisconsin primary. Let’s be pessimistic and assume Obama loses by 15%. With 75 pledged delegates, that means his lead will drop to the high 80s.
We’re now all the way to the Ohio and Texas primaries, with a total of 334 pledged delegates at stake. To claw back to a draw, Hillary Clinton will have to win a whopping 61% of them. There’s no way that can happen; the only state where Clinton has managed a margin that large is Oklahoma. And remember, this is the pessimistic scenario; if Obama wins Virginia by 15% as polls indicate, and can play two out of three between Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania to virtual draws, he’ll have lead large enough that Clinton will have to pack it in.
What you are esssentially dealing with in the Clinton campaign is a Hail Mary pass situation. Something huge and unexpected has to happen, it has to happen fast, and it has to happen more than once. AND it would have to be completely against the momentum that Obama has been enjoying for about a month or so. In other words, if Hillary makes a comeback, it will be one of the most stunning comebacks in political history, and certainly nothing that could ever be forecasted.
Possible? Sure. Likely? No chance.