Thoughts On Iowa

January 4, 2008

If you don’t know the results of last night’s caucuses in Iowa, then how did you get internet access in that cave you’re living in? No matter; although primaries are still a few months off (gee, they seemed so far off not long ago), a major chapter has been written in the election story.

I’ve been gloating for the last 16 hours about having my Obama pick being proven right in the face of many, many doubters. I honestly do not see this man losing. He is exactly what the Democrats needed four years ago, and inexplicably passed up on. He’s suave, intelligent, and insistent that his policies can unite the country. He’s almost addictive to listen to. He repeatedly invokes his American Story to patriotic effect, which marks him off from the anti-American hard left that has dominated the Democratic party since the eighties. In other words, the man was born to be a politician.

Mike Huckabee was the GOP’s big winner last night, and on this I got it wrong. I was genuinely surprised  he fended off Mitt Romney, and I can’t say I’m completely encouraged by that. There has been some seriously nasty accusations within conservative ranks regarding Huckabee, and that is saying something, considering conservatives are generally very kind to people like Mr. Huckabee. I think the GOP race is much more ambiguous than the Democratic one, if notably more dualistic. We might see a drastic shift in favor of Romney when the action moves closer to home in New Hampshire.

Hillary Clinton doesn’t have a chance. She was soundly beaten by her most hated opponent, and seemingly is headed towards a very un-Clinton third place behind John Edwards. I don’t foresee Mrs. Clinton overcoming this; she expected to win and instead got beat and then dragged down. Edwards had done well considering the competition, but I don’t expect his numbers to get any better than they were in Iowa.

The rest of the GOP is essentially out. Serious talk of dropping out has surrounded Guliani of late, and McCain did exceptionally poor considering how badly he needed a high finish here. Ron Paul broke into double digits and could surprise.

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